Writing

I write occasionally on transition risk, value chains and data infrastructure — both as professional positioning and as a contribution to the policy and industry conversations these questions sit inside.

Working papers

• The EU Carbon Price Two Years Ahead: A Tested Distribution Built from the Law, the Market and Power-Sector Dispatch — Working Paper 05, September 2026. Carbon Risk & Capital Allocation Series. The forward-projection framework promised in Working Paper 02: a distribution of the EU allowance price and of power-sector emissions one to twenty-four months ahead, built from the legislated supply path, a daily register of policy surprises and the coal-to-gas switching margin, tested at fifty-six past month-ends against what then happened, and read against the NGFS scenario paths for investors, lenders, insurers and CBAM importers.
• Sustainable Aviation Fuel — From Network to Scenario: Driving the WP03 Process Network with NGFS Phase 5 Trajectories for EU27+EFTA and the UK — Working Paper 04, July 2026. Carbon Risk & Capital Allocation Series. Draft for public comment. Companion to Working Paper 03; drives the WP03 SAF process network with NGFS Net Zero 2050 and Below 2°C scenarios and reads the results through a financial and underwriting lens.
• Sustainable Aviation Fuel — From Feedstock to Fuel: A Producer-Agnostic Process Network for the Financial Modelling of SAF and e-SAF — Working Paper 03, June 2026. Carbon Risk & Capital Allocation Series. Companion to a free online calculator.
• The EU ETS in Numbers: A Componentised Reconstruction of the Cap, 2008–2026 — Working Paper 02, June 2026, revised July 2026 (v0.3: aviation integrated). Carbon Risk & Capital Allocation Series.
• Carbon as a Capital Risk Factor: A Distribution-Based Framework for Strategic Investment Decisions under the EU ETS — Working Paper 01, February 2026. Carbon Risk & Capital Allocation Series.
• Digital Airworthiness Platform — DPP-ready — Aviation Trust Network, August 2025.

Policy responses

• Feedback on the EU Digital Product Passport Registry consultation — submitted 26 May 2026 to the European Commission’s Have Your Say platform (view on ec.europa.eu). On keeping the registry as a federated trust and discovery layer rather than evolving toward centralised storage of detailed lifecycle data; on explicit support for decentralised identifiers, verifiable credentials and event-based lifecycle traceability; and on the cross-sector interoperability that turns DPPs from a compliance burden into operational efficiency for industry.
• Feedback on the EU Biotech Act II consultation — submitted 20 May 2026 to the European Commission’s Have Your Say platform (view on ec.europa.eu). On system-level coordination and the relationship between top-down sectoral Digital Product Passport initiatives and the bottom-up upstream traceability that originates in materials and feedstocks.

Talks, teaching and podcasts

• Transition Risk: From Policy Events to Carbon-Price Scenarios — web session for the European Actuarial Academy, scheduled for 10 February 2027 (online, four hours, CPD-accredited by most European actuarial associations). It builds a carbon-price scenario from EU ETS data step by step: the supply path written in law, a daily series of policy surprises, the fuel-switching link from carbon price to power-sector emissions, and a scenario generator tested against realised prices and read against the NGFS paths. This is the material of Working Paper 02 and Working Paper 05, aimed at actuaries working on ORSA and climate scenario analysis. Runs subject to minimum registrations; details and booking on the EAA site.
• Who Pays For It? — The Future of Trust with Mat Yarger — long-form conversation with Mat Yarger of Demia, 8 October 2026 (1 hour 54 minutes). The common thread running through my work: how we decide whether to trust the records, models and claims on which real-world decisions depend. We discuss my route from quantitative pension-fund modelling into actuarial data science; the paper-based maintenance history that inspired the Aviation Trust Network; why trusted infrastructure needs open standards and aligned incentives; and how the same systems thinking applies to EU carbon pricing and sustainable aviation fuel. Also on YouTube or Spotify.

A fuller list, including LinkedIn essays, will be populated in a subsequent iteration.